GarageGabs

Well, every time you think you have a clue in the NFL a Sunday like yesterday comes along. I felt like I had a good gauge on who the power teams were, but yesterday threw a major wrench into my thoughts. I want to first take a look at the NFC playoff picture:

Atlanta took a huge step towards the playoffs with a 17-6 win over Tampa Bay. Unfortunately they may have taken a step back as well as both Warrick Dunn and Jerious Norwood left the game with injuries. The win moves the Falcons to 7-6, and was their 2nd in a row, after losing 4 straight. Can Atlanta make the playoffs? It’s possible, but will depend on the health of the run game. They’ve got Dallas and Carolina at home, and finish the season at Philly. All three of those games could go either way, I’m going to bet on a 1-2 finish, leaving Atlanta at 8-8 and out of the playoffs. Tampa, at 3-10, was officially eliminated from playoff contention.

Are the Eagles for real? Philadelphia moved their record to 2-1 without Donovan McNabb with a 21-19 win over Washington. They also stayed alive in the playoff hunt, going to 7-6 overall. Since taking over for an injured McNabb, Garcia has thrown 8 TD’s with no interceptions. So, are the Eagles the real deal? I don’t think so. Yeah, they have won 2 in a row, but Washington outplayed them yesterday. They beat an imploding Carolina team the week before. They’ve go to NY Giants, to Dallas, and host Atlanta to finish the season. I don’t think they can go 2-1 during that stretch. Philadelphia will finish 8-8 and out of the playoffs. The loss dropped Washington to 4-9, which officially eliminated them from contention.

Seattle let a GOLDEN opportunity slip through their hands yesterday. All they had to do was beat the lowly Cardinals and they would have distanced themselves from most of the NFC pack. Instead, they lost 27-21, leaving them at 8-5, smack in the middle of the playoff pack. It’s too little too late for Arizona who won their 2nd in a row, and got 100+ yards rushing from Edge James for the 2nd week in a row. At best they are saving Dennis Green’s job, they are out of playoff contention at 4-9. Seattle will still win the NFC West, probably in cruise control as they can now prepare for the playoffs. They host San Francisco and San Diego, and travel to Tampa to end the season. They’ll finish at 10-6, NFC West title in hand.

When I talked Dallas being an NFC Super Bowl contender earlier in the year I brought up reasons why the Bears, Seahawks, and Panthers could be beaten. I made the mistake of leaving out New Orleans. The Saints DEMOLISHED the Cowboys last night AT Dallas, 42-17. Drew Brees put on a show, throwing for 384 yards, and 5 TD, Reggie Bush was spectacular, and the Saints defense made Tony Romo look like….well, an undrafted, unknown quarterback….which is what he was up until this season. The Saints, at 9-4, are now in the drivers seat for the all important playoff bye, and home field advantage for the 1st round. They finish up the season vs. Washington, at New York Giants, and then host Carolina. A rough road, but I think they’ll go 2-1 leaving them at 11-5. Dallas is still in decent shape, but things are not quite as rosy. The defense is obviously missing Greg Ellis, as the lack of pressure on Drew Brees was embarrassing. Tony Romo is becoming a bit mistake prone, and if kept in the pocket, he can be a liability. Despite all this, the schedule is favorable. At Atlanta, then hosting Philadelphia and Detroit. With Atlanta being banged up in the backfield, Philly a revenge game, and Detroit being horrible, and a HUGE reality check last night, I think 3-0 is quite the possibility down the stretch, leaving Dallas tied with the Saints at 11-5…of course, the Saints own the tiebreaker.

I felt like the Giants at Carolina was an elimination game, with the loser falling to 6-7. Eli Manning and the Giants were impressive on the road with a 27-13 victory over the Panthers. It looks like Manning has righted his mistake prone ship, and the Giants could be headed in the right direction. They host Philadelphia, New Orleans, and then travel to Washington to end the season. I honestly don’t see any reason why the Giants don’t win 3 in a row finishing at 10-6….Yes, I know New Orleans is a stretch, but I just feel it. As for Carolina, I think it’s the end of the road. They host an improving Steelers team next week, then travel to Atlanta, and to New Orleans…0-3 is possible, but I’m betting on 1-2, leaving the Panthers at 7-9 and obviously out of the playoffs.

Rest of the NFC

Minnesota 30 @ Detroit 20 - Detroit is done at 2-11. Minnesota (6-7) still has a shot, hosting the Jets, at Green Bay, and home vs. St. Louis. I’m gonna go out on a limb and pick the Vikings for the final wildcard spot as they win out, going 3-0 down the stretch.

Green Bay 30 @ San Francisco 19- Both these teams are 5-8, and in my opinion, out of the playoffs.

Tonight, Chicago (10-2) travels to St. Louis (5-7). I like the Bears to win tonight, and quite honestly, don’t see them losing again this year, no matter how bad Grossman plays….leaving them at 14-2. Their schedule is full of pansies, Tampa, at Detroit, and hosting Green Bay. Really, that isn’t even fair. Tonight will probably be their last test. After the Rams fall to 5-8 tonight, they’ll pretty much be out of the playoffs. I think they will finish up 2-1 though, at Oakland, hosting Washington, and at Minnesota, leaving them at 7-9.

So, that’s the NFC, here is a look at how I see the whole thing working out:

Division Champs:

(10-2) Chicago: Finish- 14-2 (bye)- @Rams W, Tampa W, @Detroit W, Green Bay W
(9-4)New Orleans: Finish- 11-5 (bye)- Washington W, @NY Giants L, Carolina W
(8-5)Dallas: Finish 11-5 - @Atlanta W, Philadelphia W, Detroit W
(8-5)Seattle:Finish 10-6- San Francisco W, San Diego L, @Tampa W

Wildcards:

(7-6)New York Giants: Finish 10-6- Philadelphia W, New Orleans W, @Washington W
(6-7)Minnesota: Finish 9-7- Jets W, @Green Bay W, St. Louis W

Outside Looking In

(7-6)Philadelphia: Finish 8-8- @Giants L, @Dallas L, Atlanta W
(7-6)Atlanta Finish 8-8- Dallas L, @Carolina W, Philadelphia L
(6-7)Carolina: 7-9 Steelers W, @Atlanta L , @New Orleans L