GarageGabs

Talked with my good friend Mike about starting up a weekly fantasy “prediction” thread.  Things are going to be pretty basic here.  I’ll predict some must starts and must sits on the fantasy landscape each week.  After the week is over, I’ll score my predictions.  I’m also going to give readers a chance to submit picks as well.

Here’s the scoring system we’ll use.  It’s the same system we use in our fantasy league-

Rush/Receiving Yard- 1 point per 10 yards

Passing Yards- 1 point per every 20 yards

Passing/Rushing/Receiving/Return TD’s- 6 points

Receptions- .2 points per

Completions- .1 point per

Any turnover will subtract -4.5 from a given player

I’m not going to post the complete scoring for kickers and defenses.  I’ll do the math if anyone proposes a must start or bust defense/kicker.

We’ll define a must start as any player that scores at least 15 fantasy points.  If you predict a player to be a “hit” and he scores 15 points or higher, then you will receive a point.

We’ll make the cutoff point for a must sit player at 10 points.  If your must sit player scores less than 10 points you’ll receive a point for that player.  I know that seems high, but jeez, we’ve got to score points somewhere.

This process will help explain itself once we get a week under our belts.  I’ll keep up with my record and any other individuals that participate as well.  The goal of course, would be to have better than a .500 record.  Try to refrain from picking absolute studs as a hit.  For instance, calling Adrian Peterson a must start against the Broncos is pretty obvious.  Sitting a Lions QB vs. the Titans is a pretty obvious call as well.

So, here goes:

HITS- Week 11

QB Tyler Thigpen- QB was a pretty tough call for me with so many guys emerging of late.  Thigpen was the butt of many jokes early in the season as he struggled to catch up with the speed of the NFL.  The kid from Coastal Carolina has torched defenses lately with 6 TD’s in his last 3 games.  He’s given Dwayne Bowe & Tony Gonzalez renewed fantasy relevance.  This week, Thigpen’s Chiefs play host to the New Orleans Saints.  New Orleans has had huge problems getting to the quarterback this season (only 14 sacks).  They’ve also only produced 6 picks and have allowed 14 passing TD’s….both near the bottom of the NFL.  Rumor has it that Larry Johnson may return this week, which depending on how you look at it, could help or hinder Thigpen’s performance. Keep in mind that Thigpen has also shown the ability to make plays with his feet.  I like the youngster to create a TD for himself this week as well.

Prediction:  21-31, 244 yards, 2 TD, 1 rush TD

RB Tim Hightower- I had a little trouble finding a RB that was a solid play while not completely obvious.  Hightower disappointed vs. the Niners last week in a starting role.  I like him to rebound this week against a pretty bad Seahawks defense.  Seattle is dead last in the NFL vs. the pass & 22nd vs. the run.  Makes for an obvious big day for Kurt Warner right?  That’s why I’m going with Hightower here…..Seattle will spend all day trying to stop Warner & the passing game while Hightower hits them up for good yardage and a red zone TD.

Prediction- 110 combo yards, 1 TD

RB Cedric Benson- Ok, this is REALLY going out on a limb.  Philadelphia is solid (not great) vs. the run.  I like the Bengals to commit to Benson & the run game this week as they try to keep Fitzpatrick alive.

Prediction- 90 combo yards, 1 TD (That’s borderline stuff, but a good start)

WR Hines Ward- I just like Ward to get in the end zone this week vs. San Diego.

Prediction- 6 catches, 95 yards, 1 TD

TE Owen Daniels- I like Daniels to be heavily involved as the Texans try to keep up with an improving Peyton Manning.

Prediction- 6 catches, 85 yards, 1 TD

Misses Week 11

Steven Jackson/Clinton Portis- Ok, I’ll take a 2 for 1 here.  No official word on their status yet, so I think this is fair.  They both have to be dud like for me to get a point here.  Of course, if neither starts, I still get a point.

Joe Flacco- I know the guy has been improving, but I don’t like his chances on the road vs. the Giants.

Tampa Backs- Graham, Dunn, Caddy….if any of them hit this week vs. Minnesota, I’ll be VERY surprised.  Again, all 3 of them have to be duds here.

WR- Santana Moss- Just getting healthy, has a history of torching the Cowboys.  For some reason, I have a feeling the Cowboys are getting ready to bounce back in a big way.  Moss gets shut down this week.

WR- Chris Chambers- Tough match up and his ankle is still obviously bothering him.

There you have it.  Feel free to submit your own selections.  You can post them in the comments or e-mail me at garagegabs@gmail.com.