GarageGabs

Talked with my good friend Mike about starting up a weekly fantasy “prediction” thread.  Things are going to be pretty basic here.  I’ll predict some must starts and must sits on the fantasy landscape each week.  After the week is over, I’ll score my predictions.  I’m also going to give readers a chance to submit picks as well.

Here’s the scoring system we’ll use.  It’s the same system we use in our fantasy league-

Rush/Receiving Yard- 1 point per 10 yards

Passing Yards- 1 point per every 20 yards

Passing/Rushing/Receiving/Return TD’s- 6 points

Receptions- .2 points per

Completions- .1 point per

Any turnover will subtract -4.5 from a given player

I’m not going to post the complete scoring for kickers and defenses.  I’ll do the math if anyone proposes a must start or bust defense/kicker.

We’ll define a must start as any player that scores at least 15 fantasy points.  If you predict a player to be a “hit” and he scores 15 points or higher, then you will receive a point.

We’ll make the cutoff point for a must sit player at 10 points.  If your must sit player scores less than 10 points you’ll receive a point for that player.  I know that seems high, but jeez, we’ve got to score points somewhere.

This process will help explain itself once we get a week under our belts.  I’ll keep up with my record and any other individuals that participate as well.  The goal of course, would be to have better than a .500 record.  Try to refrain from picking absolute studs as a hit.  For instance, calling Adrian Peterson a must start against the Broncos is pretty obvious.  Sitting a Lions QB vs. the Titans is a pretty obvious call as well.

So, here goes:

HITS- Week 11

QB Tyler Thigpen- QB was a pretty tough call for me with so many guys emerging of late.  Thigpen was the butt of many jokes early in the season as he struggled to catch up with the speed of the NFL.  The kid from Coastal Carolina has torched defenses lately with 6 TD’s in his last 3 games.  He’s given Dwayne Bowe & Tony Gonzalez renewed fantasy relevance.  This week, Thigpen’s Chiefs play host to the New Orleans Saints.  New Orleans has had huge problems getting to the quarterback this season (only 14 sacks).  They’ve also only produced 6 picks and have allowed 14 passing TD’s….both near the bottom of the NFL.  Rumor has it that Larry Johnson may return this week, which depending on how you look at it, could help or hinder Thigpen’s performance. Keep in mind that Thigpen has also shown the ability to make plays with his feet.  I like the youngster to create a TD for himself this week as well.

Prediction:  21-31, 244 yards, 2 TD, 1 rush TD

RB Tim Hightower- I had a little trouble finding a RB that was a solid play while not completely obvious.  Hightower disappointed vs. the Niners last week in a starting role.  I like him to rebound this week against a pretty bad Seahawks defense.  Seattle is dead last in the NFL vs. the pass & 22nd vs. the run.  Makes for an obvious big day for Kurt Warner right?  That’s why I’m going with Hightower here…..Seattle will spend all day trying to stop Warner & the passing game while Hightower hits them up for good yardage and a red zone TD.

Prediction- 110 combo yards, 1 TD

RB Cedric Benson- Ok, this is REALLY going out on a limb.  Philadelphia is solid (not great) vs. the run.  I like the Bengals to commit to Benson & the run game this week as they try to keep Fitzpatrick alive.

Prediction- 90 combo yards, 1 TD (That’s borderline stuff, but a good start)

WR Hines Ward- I just like Ward to get in the end zone this week vs. San Diego.

Prediction- 6 catches, 95 yards, 1 TD

TE Owen Daniels- I like Daniels to be heavily involved as the Texans try to keep up with an improving Peyton Manning.

Prediction- 6 catches, 85 yards, 1 TD

Misses Week 11

Steven Jackson/Clinton Portis- Ok, I’ll take a 2 for 1 here.  No official word on their status yet, so I think this is fair.  They both have to be dud like for me to get a point here.  Of course, if neither starts, I still get a point.

Joe Flacco- I know the guy has been improving, but I don’t like his chances on the road vs. the Giants.

Tampa Backs- Graham, Dunn, Caddy….if any of them hit this week vs. Minnesota, I’ll be VERY surprised.  Again, all 3 of them have to be duds here.

WR- Santana Moss- Just getting healthy, has a history of torching the Cowboys.  For some reason, I have a feeling the Cowboys are getting ready to bounce back in a big way.  Moss gets shut down this week.

WR- Chris Chambers- Tough match up and his ankle is still obviously bothering him.

There you have it.  Feel free to submit your own selections.  You can post them in the comments or e-mail me at garagegabs@gmail.com.

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Why is it on Sunday we sit in front of the computer and watch plays unfold on stat tracker and watch games that most fans would find completely boring? Is it our male bravado? To me being a part of a league is my way of fulfilling my need for competitive spirit.  The highs and lows associated with Fantasy sports can wreck havoc on one’s nerves.

To the 3 people that will ever see this: This is Mike’s 1st attempt at a post.  Patience please.  This post is about his fantasy feelings.

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Thought the midpoint of the NFL season would be a nice time to take a look at fantasy flops & surpises:

 

Fantasy Flops:

 

Tom Brady- Ok, so Brady isn’t exactly a flop.  However, his loss due to injury has had a huge impact on the fantasy landscape.  Anytime you take away a guy who threw 50 TD’s the previous season there will be fantasy ramifications.  The obvious impact is some unlucky owner losing a franchise QB (and probable 1st round pick) for an entire season.  Owners who spent high draft picks on Randy Moss have been heavily impacted as well.  Moss went from 23 TD’s last season to just 4 at the halfway point this year.  Other Patriots had their stock drop as well, just not as drastic.

 

Speaking of Patriots, how about Laurence Maroney.  Maroney spent most of last season as a fantasy frustration only to turn it own in the fantasy playoffs to the tune of 260 yards & 2 TD’s.  He was also very productive in last years playoffs, prompting many owners to rank him in the top 10 of fantasy backs coming into this season.  End result?  Maroney carried the ball all of 28 times this season for 98 yards before being lost to injury.  The Maroney impact has been huge, opening up the Patriots backfield to a roll the dice rotation of Sammy Morris, Kevin Faulk, Lamont Jordan, and Benjarvus Green-Ellis.  Uggh.

 

Braylon Edwards- Everybodies boy wonder at WR coming into this season.  Edwards and the high flying Browns offense appeared to have busted through last year.  Edwards put up monster numbers, 1289 receiving yards and 16 TD’s.  This year, Edwards has had a bad case of the drops and has posted just 457 yards and 3 TD’s.  He’s been coming on of late, was dinged up early, and has had to deal with some QB issues as Derek Anderson has struggled to repeat last seasons success as well.  Add Kellen Winslow Jr. to the list of under achieving Browns as well.  Winslow appeared to be a top 3 TE coming into this year.  He’s failed to hit the mark due to a variety of reasons, including problems with upper management, injury, (swollen teste anyone?) and an inconsistent Browns offense.

 

 

Fred Taylor- Fragile Fred went off last year, 1202 rush yards & 5 TD while sharing carries with Maurice Jones-Drew.  He’s been virtually invisible this season with only 278 rush yards and zero trips to the end-zone.  Taylor is probably available on most waiver wires as I type.

 

Darren McFadden- McFadden was a trendy pick to be this year’s Adrian Peterson.  Hasn’t exactly panned out that way.  Toe injuries have limited McFadden to just 67 carries this year, although he’s been productive at 5.1 yards per.  He teased owners in week 2 with 164 rush yards & a TD but just can’t seem to stay on the field long enough to show us what talent he might have.  He’s not a total bust yet, but is obviously running out of time.  It doesn’t help matters that Oakland appears anemic on offense, has an insane owner, a terrible young QB, and Fargas and Bush stealing carries.

 

 

 

Marques Colston- A savior for many teams in his rookie year who then proved it to be no fluke last season, Colston has done NADA this season.  Again, he’s been plagued by injury, but even when on the field he hasn’t produced.  Owners were probably expecting a bit more than 5 catches for 82 yards.

 

Bengals- Can I just lump them all together?  Carson Palmer injured.  Chad “Ocho Cinco” non-existant for most of the season.  No running game to speak of.  T.J. Houshmanzadeh has been hit or miss despite accumulating a fair amount of receptions.  People counting on productive Bengals have been screwed.

 

Cowboys- This one has only hit recently due to the Romo injury.  The Cowboy offense has been offensive under the leadership of Brad Johnson.  Felix Jones provided a huge boost to owners early in the year, but has since been lost to injury.  Marion Barber III was strong early, but a huge zero without Johnson.  Terrell Owens has yet to post a 100 yard game this season.  Now the injury bug seems to have hit Jason Witten also.  Keep in mind, Dallas enjoys a week 10 bye and expects to have Romo & Felix Jones back afterwards…..the offense should take a turn upward upon their return.  It’s also important to note that the Dallas Defense (A highly rated defense this year) has performed WELL below expectations.  That doesn’t appear to be getting any better, although Terrence Newman is expected to return to practice soon as well.

 

Ryan Grant-  Grant was what we like to call “gangbusters” in the 2nd half of last season, rushing for 956 yards and 8 TD’s in just 7 starts at a 5.1 ypc clip.  He came into this season dinged up and in the midst of a QB change.  In a word, his production is DOWN.  It’s not for lack of trying.  Grant has put up 550 yards and 1 TD (3.1ypc) on 157 carries.  He had 188 carries last year.  He has begun to come on of late, if in nothing but carries alone (84 attempts in last 3 games).  Probably too early to call him a fluke, but the guy was touted a STUD back this season and just hasn’t produced.  It doesn’t help that he doesn’t seem to be as involved in the passing game with Aaron Rodgers at QB (just 4 receptions).  Grant is a powerful back who might get stronger as the season progresses, and there is no doubt that running the football becomes paramount as the weather gets cooler.  Barring injury, I like his ypc and TD to be better in the 2nd half than they were in the first, but probably no where close to last season’s 2nd half. 

 

Larry Johnson- I’m not going to go into great detail on Johnson’s numbers, we all know the guy has been a stud in the past.  His current problems are a mile long, including suspensions, weak O-line, and terrible QB play.  Consider him a long shot to put up LJ’ type production in the 2nd half.

 

Marc Bulger/Torry Holt- Holt, at one time one of the top 2-3 WR’s in the league has fallen a few notches.  The writing has been on the wall for the past couple of seasons as his yards per catch have began to fall, but the guy has always managed to produce.  He’s been a dud this season with just 347 yards and 2 TD.  Bulger just can’t catch a break.  Benched by his own coach, going through coaching changes, an inadequate O-Line, injuries to Steven Jackson, and an inexperienced receiving corps have all managed to contribute to his lack of production.  He’s no longer a top tier QB, but is still worth a matchup start from time to time.

 

 

Julius Jones- Ok, it’s a long shot to call Jones a bust, but he was to be the feature back in the Seattle offense.  Jones teased for a couple of weeks with some impressive performances but has since fell into his more comforting time share role in an offense that lacks any type of continuity.  Go ahead and put Matt Hasselbeck on this list as well.  The Seahawks just plain blow.

 

Willie Parker, Joseph Addai, Willis McGahee- Injuries & timeshares have taken their tole on all 3 backs.  Parker & Addai seem primed to retake their starting roles, but McGahee looks to be trapped in a 3 headed monster in the backfield.  Addai wasn’t producing even when he was healthy, but as Peyton Manning continues to hit stride look for Addai to improve.

 

**Honorable Mentions**

Dallas Clark, Antonio Gates, Edge James, Santonio Holmes, Plaxico Burress

 

Fantasy Surprises

 Kurt Warner- Maybe not SO surprising, but at least impressive.  The fact that Warner has been able to stay healthy (he’s 36 and less mobile than my kitchen table) is one thing, but he’s also leading one of the more explosive offenses in the NFL…..to the tune of 2431 passing yards, 16 TD, and 6 INT.  Is it 1999 again?

 

Aaron Rodgers- No one really knew what to expect from the kid, but he’s definitely shown the ability to sling the football.  Owners that took a chance on him have been rewarded with 1982 passing yards, 13 TD, and just 5 picks.  He’s also showing he can move his feet with 124 rush yards and 3 TD.

 

Tennessee Titans Defense- We knew they were good.  This good?  Maybe.  The Titans are outperforming all defenses taken ahead of them including Pittsburgh, Chicago, San Diego, New England and Dallas.

 

 

Clinton Portis- Again, not really a surprise, but Portis has been the best back in the NFL up to now.  Portis is one of the last remaining true workhorse backs in the league has amassed 995 rush yards & 7 TD’s at 5.0 ypc.  Included in his mastery were 5 consecutive games of at least 125 rushing yards.

 

Kyle Orton- Now out for a couple of weeks.  The 106th pick of the 2005 NFL draft has 10 TD (already a career high) and just 4 picks.  Did I mention he’s a Bears QB?

 

Brett Favre- 15 TD’s is great.  12 INT’s is not.  The guy’s still chuggin along though.  Sure would have liked to have started him in that 6 TD game.

 

Chris Johnson/Matt Forte-There were a lot of hyped rookie backs coming into this year.  McFadden, Kevin Smith, Felix Jones, Rashard Mendenhal, Steve Slaton, Jonathan Stewart, Ray Rice, Tim Hightower etc.  They’ve all shined at one time or another but none brighter than Johnson & Forte.  Johnson has been flat out electric and has proved to be much more than a change of pace back for LenDale White (someone who also bears mentioning with 10 TD’s).  Johnson is a do it all type back, rushing for 715 yards and 5 TD’s while hauling in 24 receptions for 164 yards and a TD as well.  Honestly, I didn’t expect this from the former ECU back.  Figured him to be 3rd on the depth chart while nabbing 5-7 touches per game.  I did expect big things from Forte.  He’s been just as productive as Johnson with 641 rush yards and 2 TD’s along with 30 receptions 228 yards and 2 more TD.  Long term this is a VERY nice class of rookie backs that will likely be making noise for years to come.

 

Rookie WR’s- A really nice list.  DeSean Jackson, Eddie Royal, Donnie Avery….explosive playmakers.  All 3 have shown a tendacy to be a bit inconsistent but are huge playmakers none the less.

 

Roddy White/Michael Turner/Matt Ryan- Perhaps this all starts with Ryan as he’s the only rookie of this Falcons trio.  He hasn’t been amazing, but he’s been tremendously solid for a rookie.  He’s checking in around the middle of the fantasy football pack and has thrown 9 TD’s and 5 picks.  Most importantly he’s developed a rapport with WR Roddie White.  White has turned into a top 5 WR this season…48 catches, 733 yards and 5 TD.  White’s progression began last season, but he was difficult to guage before this season thanks to the presence of a rookie QB.  White is nothing less than a STUD.  Michael Turner is probably the guy making all this possible.  The former Tomlinson backup is thriving as the man in Atlanta.  794 rush yards, 6 TD’s, Four 100 yard games including a 220 yard performance and a 3 TD performance.  Atlanta, which used to begin and end with Mike Vick now has a fantasy trio worthy of starting in most fantasy leagues.

 

 

Santana Moss- Despite a couple of bad games, Moss still put up huge numbers.  44 catches, 644 yards, 5 TD.  I’d take that anyday.

 

**Honorable Mentions**

Jason Campbell, Chad Pennington, Thomas Jones, Darren Sproles, Bernard Berrian

 

Who’d I miss?  I know I didn’t point out all the flops and surprises….feel free to comment and add more.

 

 

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I’ve decided to no longer limit my posts to just sports.  I’m going to open the arena up to any subject matter from now on.  I’ve got a lot of thoughts about politics which I’ll get into when I have more time.  For now, I’ll just link a few humorous items-

Have fun with this one, click the photo or the link-  Enjoy, be sure and click all you can with your mouse.

Palin As President

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Back for another edition of Quick Slants, this week we’ll start in the crazy ACC.

The ACC gets even crazier tonight as Virginia Tech upset #4 North Carolina in OT, 81-80. The win gives Virginia Tech a season sweep over the Heels and sets up a HUGE matchup as Carolina travels to #21 Boston College this Saturday. B.C. will be no worse than tied for first in the ACC. They currently have a one game lead on Carolina, but host struggling Duke tomorrow night. Back to back wins over Duke and UNC would give the Eagles a commanding 2 game lead in the league. All this without Sean Williams. Another mild upset tonight as Georgia Tech knocked off Florida State, 63-57.

Carlos Zambrano refers to himself as himself. “Whatever happens, I don’t want to know about a contract during the season. I want to sign with the Cubs before the season starts. If they don’t sign me, sorry, but I must go. That’s what Carlos Zambrano thinks.”

Not only is John Amaechi gay, he also feels that Jerry Sloan’s perceptions of him held him back in the NBA. He also sounds like a mix between Shakespeare and Edgar Allen Poe; “We want our pound of flesh. We as society. Give us our human sacrifice. I don’t care what you lose. I don’t care what you risk. You must fall on your sword for us to look at you in a different way”. I think Amaechi is giving society WAY too much credit if he thinks we put that much thought into a player coming forward and telling us he is gay.
Amaechi Interview (CNN)

Hope For Bloggers Everywhere: True Hoop is absorbed by ESPN This is MAJOR news in the blog-realm. True Hoop is a fantastic site, but it gives everyone the hope that the can do the same.

I can now post something that will interest my fiancee!! Reggie Bush has been spotted with Ciara! Of course, since they were spotted together, this automatically means they are dating. The Big Lead goes as far to say that Ciara is being called the next Beyonce. I call whatever on that, she’s somewhat talented, even less hot, (she’s cute, but built like an 18 year old boy) and is nowhere in the REALM of hotness that Beyonce inhabits.

Reggie Bush Getting His Mac-Daddy Vibe With Ciara (The Big Lead)

Ha Ha, Duke sucks!

Tiki Barber joins NBC to be a ‘Today’ show correspondent. NBC is a fitting network for Tiki.

Finally, I’ve been following the world of politics a little more lately. I’m a bit put off by Hillary Clinton being a little foggy in explaining why she originally voted for the Iraq war. I get that people would not have voted for the war had they known what they know now. That is a reasonable answer. However, the thing with Hillary is that she seems to use public perception to determine if her vote was a good thing…or a bad thing. Just 1 day after Saddam was captured Hillary was very clear to point out how pleased she was and that she voted for the war. See, the war was a good thing on that day, so she wanted to be clear that she voted for it. Now, the war is a bad thing, and she wants to be clear that she was voting for the inspectors to return to Iraq.

Elsewhere, Barack Obama, used the word “wasted” when referring to the 3,000+ U.S. soldiers that had died in Iraq. He quickly apologized and said that he shouldn’t and didn’t mean to use the word wasted. That’s fine by me, we all get carried away at times. However, Obama is about as far left on the war as you can get. He wants to get out of Iraq and fast. If he were to pull troops out of Iraq before the mission was completed, would our soldiers lives have been wasted? I don’t think it will matter, Obama is too far left to get the Democratic nomination anyway. It’s truly a shame, because he is the only candidate that doesn’t change his stance based on polls.

Finally, John Edwards second crazy blogger quit today. These girls, and Edwards keep making out like their blogs were “ok” because the were their own personal blogs. Yeah, ok for me to write, but I’m not involved with someone running for president. Jeez!

Here is her blog: Shakespeare’s Sister

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Well, at least it would seem that way to this lady (Sandy Williams) that interviews Martin Lawrence at a Hawks game.  After Martin talks about his own movie, she refers to “Norbit” as “you got a new movie out”. Uhhh, Sandy, that’s Eddie Murphy.  Oh, and the Hawks game was a “star studded event”.  The 3rd time she says “start studded event” she refers to Eddie’s  Martin’s movie as being a “star studded event”.  Seriously world…I’d love to have a sideline reporters job.  I’m not all bad to look at, I am knowledgeable about the Hawks (I know they had Nique  and Spudd), and I’m a solid speaker.  Anyway, check out the video, I’m heading out to watch Martin Lawrence in “Dreamgirls”.

[youtube]3zigoxzH8aY&eurl=[/youtube]

Uh Oh…..Someone Has Tivo!  (Awful Announcing)

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Yahoo! has run yet another story on Reggie Bush and his family accepting cash gifts. This time, the “ongoing Yahoo! Sports investigation” has uncovered actual audio tapes that confirm Bush and his family accepted some $280,000 in gifts.

Couple questions. Why is Yahoo! the main entity chasing the story? Yeah, ESPN is reporting it, but they are crediting…..Yahoo, without the exclamation point. Secondly, who cares? This would be a story if Reggie Bush were still in college, but he’s not. Yeah, they can take away the National Championship, a Heisman, erase all that stuff from the books, but it isn’t going to change the fact that it happened. I admit, the Yahoo story got too confusing for me to read, I just sorta skimmed it….kinda like I do when the other Bush (George W.) is in the news. With that being said, forgive me if I get something wrong here.
I’d also like to know how a player, playing for USC could accept $280,000 and USC simply be stripped of their achievements, retroactive so to speak, yet a school like NCSU has players accept some free sneakers in the late 80’s and the program is placed on strict probation. What I’m saying is this: If it is determined that Bush (Reggie, not George) and his family accepted $280K and USC gets anything less than probation in the form of recruiting restrictions and a post-season ban, then the NCAA is a farce. GarageGabs! is outta here.

Yahoo! thinks they’ve got Bush!

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Ok, at this point, I’m starting to feel bad for Sean Salisbury, a guy whom I previously didn’t care for.  First, he got hit with the whole penis picture thing.  Now, it appears he used the word “JEW” as he described Peyton Manning and the Colts overcoming adversity.
Here is what I think he said:

“No need to panic, we’ll nip, we’ll tuck, we’ll go, we’ll punch, we’ll jew,  we’ll do it all, and they nickeled and dimed em, and Peyton made the play when it mattered.”

Profootballtalk.com was kind enough to extract the actual audio, so you can listen for yourself.

I really don’t see the big deal.  I think he used the word “jew” but I don’t think he intended to.  I think maybe he meant to say juke….who knows.  Either way, I bet he gets fired for this.  ESPN is reporting that he said “chew”, so obviously, they are a bit worried as to the implications.  Seriously though, people always complain about living in such a PC world, and now we are ragging this poor guy to death.  I for one, am going to let up on Salisbury.  Everything reported about him has been pure speculation, he’s probably just a normal guy, just like the rest of us.  He obviously has a passion for football.  Good luck with this one Sean.

The Salisbury Audio: Decide For Yourself  (Deadspin)

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I don’t have a whole lot to add to todays NFL Championship games.  I’ll have more spin on things tomorrow, I just wanted to get a quick results post in.
The Bears took advantage of 4 Saints turnovers to route the New Orleans Saints, 39-14.  Glad I didn’t stick with the Saints, they just didn’t have it this afternoon as the unthinkable has happened….Rex Grossman has led the Bears to the Super Bowl, well, not really.  Rex only completed 11 passes, as the Bears defense, run game, and weather dominated the Saints.

Well, America asked for it, and now you have received it.  Peyton Manning and the Colts are heading the the Super Bowl after a 38-34 victory over Tom Brady and the Patriots.  Honestly, I have to give it up for Manning, the guy was all balls in the 2nd half, leading the Colts back from a 21-6 deficit, and 32 2nd half points.  I still think the Colts got a slight gift on that last drive with the roughing the passer call that put them on the 11 yard line.  Only one very quick replay was showed, I have to figure that’s because of the intense man crush that the league and media has for Manning.  They didn’t want to taint his victory in any way.  Looked to me like a D-lineman sorta fell down and grazed Manning’s facemask with with his hand, but again, I only saw one replay.  I hope you are prepared for 2 straight weeks of Manning lovefest.

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Personally, I think this is a fantastic idea.  Nothin like hearing the whiney Patriots fan declare that this is an illegal practice.  Of course this won’t limit the sales from ticket brokers and person to person sales, BUT it will reduce the amount of Patriot fans in what will be a sold out game.  Don’t know if you’ve ever been to a big playoff game, but road fans tend to lead to lots of fighting.  Drinking+Tailgating+Road Fans don’t mix.

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